Electorally, she could stay competitive across all 50 states — red, purple, and blue — enough to have a snowball’s chance of winning the nomination. Among the right, she’d seize enough long-suffering Trump-skeptics to join with her obvious vote share from Democrats and independents voting in the GOP primary. And in the blue states, she could run theoretically run up the delegate score with Democratic support.
That’s not to say she’s a likely winner. Just that there’s a mechanism by which she could gain momentum towards a nomination, in the same manner as Trump was able to use the 2016 crowded field and later spoiler effect to win his own nomination.
OMG. Liz Cheney may be Conversative, but she is honest, a sane GOP member, and stood up to the MAGA crap. GOP voted her out for her "outspokenness" against MAGA crap. I hope GOP will hear her for a 2024 nomination. I doubt it. GOP just seems to favor discredited, convicted, negligent, delusional uneducated Q-following MAGA mouthpieces as potential runners. I was staunch GOP all my life as were my generations before me. My late, uber-GOP Dad would heartily support my switch to Dem. Dem now is what GOP used to claim to be.... FOR the people, the little guys, and not for big corporations who controlled Government, Current GOP aims to BE Big Government. Um. that's not the GOP of Lincoln. That's more like Communist Russia.
I know Liz is Conservative. I cannot be any longer. She reminds me though: For decades, I loved Uber Conservative John McCain for his honesty -- even while I vehemently stood against many of his views. Those views I DID agree with were the powerful ones that affected all Americans right away.. GOP leaders who have integrity can still represent us all... McCain worked across the aisle with Biden all the time, over decades!
Liz Cheney has does the same over her tenure, a la McCain. Don't let ignoramus Trump denigrate John McCain's incredible legacy as a stateman in USA . GOP though he was, he worked for a better America. With Dems, not against them. And don't let MAGA fools tell you Liz is not true GOP. She's one of the few true ones left. Uncle Joe would agree.
If I thought that Cheney was a moderate republican, I would consider voting for her. The problem is I have no reason to believe that's the case. Even despite the fact she voted for impeachment.....and it cost her her job.
Game this out. Let's say Cheney narrowly boxes out Trump on an "honor and decency" ticket, and then miraculously beats the Democrat despite an actively revolting GOP base.
Do you honestly think that she'd then turn around and govern like an extremist? I don't think so. She'd barely be able to govern on traditional issues of partisan ideology in the first place. She'd struggle to even pass a budget! It'd be like the Darkest Timeline version of the West Wing: Instead of magically making Congress like her, the Trumpists would still be actively revolting, the Democrats would be PISSY that their candidate lost, and she'd only really have the support of a narrow group of Never-Trumpers.
A President Cheney would basically be left trying to put down the Trumpist revolt 24/7. She'd be wielding appointments like a cudgel to get the Quislings (IE fake Trumpists who never really liked Trump but were too cowardly to oppose him) back under control AND the Dems to stop undermining her. And that'd be about it. She couldn't pass legislation, she'd have to fight tooth and nail just to get appointees confirmed. But at least she'd be a competent hand behind The Button.
We have to stop equating being against trump and everything he stands for a politically moderate. She and other like her are doing the bare minimum to keep our democracy. Policy views don’t necessarily connect to someone opinion on January 6th and the big lie. That being said a competent republican that is willing to work with dems on important issues seems like a way better option than many other republicans.
To be clear, though, I'm not making that equivalency. I sincerely do believe that she's a rather staunch conservative, and that she is very sincere about that.
I'm just saying that her most likely political situation would inherently force her to govern from the center. Any "rightward" direction that she'd putatively run if given her druthers would simply be incompatible with anyone actually following her there, least of all the Trumpists.
To put things in antiquarian terms, she's a Whig, not a Confederate. I don't think her Whig politics can ever bring the Confederates back onto her side if she beats them. The most she'll ever be able to do is guide the country through a politically unstable term and hope that the factions have been disrupted enough to allow a peaceful result in 2028.
So how about a Pence/cheney ticket? It would really force the traditional GOP to have their come to Jesus moment (no pun intended?), are they really a party about anger and violence? Or do they actually believe in policies that seek to improve the country?
If you look at voting records, ya know what politicians actually believe, cheney and pence both are more conservative than trump. Trumps rise has nothing to do with traditional conservatism and everything to do with the politics of grievance. This is a long way of saying I hope the right realizes that putting trump back in power ends up disastrously for our nation, and Pence/Cheney ticket really shows then all what politics by adults looks like.
All that being said I don’t know how viable that would be since the party apparatus is cratering under the weight of trumpism. 3rd party anyone ?
PS- a very small part of me hopes trump gets the nomination so we can whoop his ass again.
I don’t think Pence/Cheney is a viable ticket at the moment. Her brand clashes too much for him; it’s too bold of a move.
I could only see it happening if Cheney struggles to break 5-15% and Pence is in the race, which is a bit of a stretch.
I don’t like to think of this stuff in terms of specific scenarios anymore anyways. Rather, I like to ask what the big game-changers are:
1. Does Trump duck out/die before Nov ‘24? And at what point in the race does he do it?
2. Do any of the non-Cheney challengers - DeSantis, Carlson, Rubio, Pence, Christie - actually try to run?
3. How do Republicans do in the midterms - specifically, Trump’s endorsed candidates?
The answers to those questions will determine what role Cheney plays.
My personal hunch is that none of them have the guts to be the first to challenge Trump. Without Cheney in the mix, they all spend the next two years eyeing each other and Trump waiting for someone to make a move; and any move they make will likely come too late to build a credible challenge.
To bold a move? That’s what anyone not trump needs to have a chance. Pence would be smart to have a person of color and/or a woman as his VP. If he’s really going to make a run at it he needs to go all in on showing conservatives what a non-trump ticket would look like.
Another thought I had, Cheney be the only one that has the cojones to strike out against trump first for 2024. The damn may break then and pence, desantis et. al. may flow in behind.
To be honest desantis scares me more than trump. He has all the warped view of reality and victimhood that Trump has but is more polished and on message. It’s the difference between a low level drug dealer wacked out on their own supply but still selling some and a freaking mafia don selling to the whole eastern seaboard. The other guys are mostly done for now, none have made a mark in any fashion, if trump is still alive but is lot going to run in 2024 watch out for him to make a presidential endorsement for Jim Jordan or another congressional lackey.
Trump endorsements have run their course now, most of the time he backed a candidate it was in a lead or solid red district or state. So I think he’s already made his mark there. The only way he doesn’t run in 2024 is if he goes to jail or gets close or isn’t physically able. That or he’s implicated in his wife’s death in any way.
I don't think that the dam necessarily breaks just because Cheney breaks it. It doesn't break without her, but she may not be enough to break it all on her own.
If it does, then the split field hurts Trump the most. There's a certain baseline 5-15% of Republicans who never liked Trump and only ever supported him because they liked having an upset win for once. Those are her automatic base. From there, another 25-35% is "persuadable" for her to bring back to their senses, and these are the ones mostly subject to a momentum effect - if it looks like some people are being persuaded, then they'll ALL start being persuaded.
However, those are also the voters that the Trump challengers will be competing for the most. Pence, Rubio, and Christie will be all over them. Only Tucker and DeSantis will dare going for the base, and even they will be facing an uphill battle, so it's not unreasonable to expect one of them to buckle and compete for the persuadable squishes.
The delegates are "the party". And until Trump's veneer of primary invincibility is pierced, they alone won't be enough to convince any candidate to break the dam. Again, without Cheney in the mix, it's just going to be whispers and staring while Trump plods along unopposed.
Tucker Carlson? are you kidding...my opnion of tuck is just as bad as tRump, so yes I would vote for her over tuck, its disturbing just to think that that jerk off could even run
OMG. Liz Cheney may be Conversative, but she is honest, a sane GOP member, and stood up to the MAGA crap. GOP voted her out for her "outspokenness" against MAGA crap. I hope GOP will hear her for a 2024 nomination. I doubt it. GOP just seems to favor discredited, convicted, negligent, delusional uneducated Q-following MAGA mouthpieces as potential runners. I was staunch GOP all my life as were my generations before me. My late, uber-GOP Dad would heartily support my switch to Dem. Dem now is what GOP used to claim to be.... FOR the people, the little guys, and not for big corporations who controlled Government, Current GOP aims to BE Big Government. Um. that's not the GOP of Lincoln. That's more like Communist Russia.
I know Liz is Conservative. I cannot be any longer. She reminds me though: For decades, I loved Uber Conservative John McCain for his honesty -- even while I vehemently stood against many of his views. Those views I DID agree with were the powerful ones that affected all Americans right away.. GOP leaders who have integrity can still represent us all... McCain worked across the aisle with Biden all the time, over decades!
Liz Cheney has does the same over her tenure, a la McCain. Don't let ignoramus Trump denigrate John McCain's incredible legacy as a stateman in USA . GOP though he was, he worked for a better America. With Dems, not against them. And don't let MAGA fools tell you Liz is not true GOP. She's one of the few true ones left. Uncle Joe would agree.
The innate troll in me would just love the first female POTUS to be a Republican.
If I thought that Cheney was a moderate republican, I would consider voting for her. The problem is I have no reason to believe that's the case. Even despite the fact she voted for impeachment.....and it cost her her job.
Let me challenge that, though.
Game this out. Let's say Cheney narrowly boxes out Trump on an "honor and decency" ticket, and then miraculously beats the Democrat despite an actively revolting GOP base.
Do you honestly think that she'd then turn around and govern like an extremist? I don't think so. She'd barely be able to govern on traditional issues of partisan ideology in the first place. She'd struggle to even pass a budget! It'd be like the Darkest Timeline version of the West Wing: Instead of magically making Congress like her, the Trumpists would still be actively revolting, the Democrats would be PISSY that their candidate lost, and she'd only really have the support of a narrow group of Never-Trumpers.
A President Cheney would basically be left trying to put down the Trumpist revolt 24/7. She'd be wielding appointments like a cudgel to get the Quislings (IE fake Trumpists who never really liked Trump but were too cowardly to oppose him) back under control AND the Dems to stop undermining her. And that'd be about it. She couldn't pass legislation, she'd have to fight tooth and nail just to get appointees confirmed. But at least she'd be a competent hand behind The Button.
We have to stop equating being against trump and everything he stands for a politically moderate. She and other like her are doing the bare minimum to keep our democracy. Policy views don’t necessarily connect to someone opinion on January 6th and the big lie. That being said a competent republican that is willing to work with dems on important issues seems like a way better option than many other republicans.
To be clear, though, I'm not making that equivalency. I sincerely do believe that she's a rather staunch conservative, and that she is very sincere about that.
I'm just saying that her most likely political situation would inherently force her to govern from the center. Any "rightward" direction that she'd putatively run if given her druthers would simply be incompatible with anyone actually following her there, least of all the Trumpists.
To put things in antiquarian terms, she's a Whig, not a Confederate. I don't think her Whig politics can ever bring the Confederates back onto her side if she beats them. The most she'll ever be able to do is guide the country through a politically unstable term and hope that the factions have been disrupted enough to allow a peaceful result in 2028.
So how about a Pence/cheney ticket? It would really force the traditional GOP to have their come to Jesus moment (no pun intended?), are they really a party about anger and violence? Or do they actually believe in policies that seek to improve the country?
If you look at voting records, ya know what politicians actually believe, cheney and pence both are more conservative than trump. Trumps rise has nothing to do with traditional conservatism and everything to do with the politics of grievance. This is a long way of saying I hope the right realizes that putting trump back in power ends up disastrously for our nation, and Pence/Cheney ticket really shows then all what politics by adults looks like.
All that being said I don’t know how viable that would be since the party apparatus is cratering under the weight of trumpism. 3rd party anyone ?
PS- a very small part of me hopes trump gets the nomination so we can whoop his ass again.
I don’t think Pence/Cheney is a viable ticket at the moment. Her brand clashes too much for him; it’s too bold of a move.
I could only see it happening if Cheney struggles to break 5-15% and Pence is in the race, which is a bit of a stretch.
I don’t like to think of this stuff in terms of specific scenarios anymore anyways. Rather, I like to ask what the big game-changers are:
1. Does Trump duck out/die before Nov ‘24? And at what point in the race does he do it?
2. Do any of the non-Cheney challengers - DeSantis, Carlson, Rubio, Pence, Christie - actually try to run?
3. How do Republicans do in the midterms - specifically, Trump’s endorsed candidates?
The answers to those questions will determine what role Cheney plays.
My personal hunch is that none of them have the guts to be the first to challenge Trump. Without Cheney in the mix, they all spend the next two years eyeing each other and Trump waiting for someone to make a move; and any move they make will likely come too late to build a credible challenge.
To bold a move? That’s what anyone not trump needs to have a chance. Pence would be smart to have a person of color and/or a woman as his VP. If he’s really going to make a run at it he needs to go all in on showing conservatives what a non-trump ticket would look like.
Another thought I had, Cheney be the only one that has the cojones to strike out against trump first for 2024. The damn may break then and pence, desantis et. al. may flow in behind.
To be honest desantis scares me more than trump. He has all the warped view of reality and victimhood that Trump has but is more polished and on message. It’s the difference between a low level drug dealer wacked out on their own supply but still selling some and a freaking mafia don selling to the whole eastern seaboard. The other guys are mostly done for now, none have made a mark in any fashion, if trump is still alive but is lot going to run in 2024 watch out for him to make a presidential endorsement for Jim Jordan or another congressional lackey.
Trump endorsements have run their course now, most of the time he backed a candidate it was in a lead or solid red district or state. So I think he’s already made his mark there. The only way he doesn’t run in 2024 is if he goes to jail or gets close or isn’t physically able. That or he’s implicated in his wife’s death in any way.
I don't think that the dam necessarily breaks just because Cheney breaks it. It doesn't break without her, but she may not be enough to break it all on her own.
If it does, then the split field hurts Trump the most. There's a certain baseline 5-15% of Republicans who never liked Trump and only ever supported him because they liked having an upset win for once. Those are her automatic base. From there, another 25-35% is "persuadable" for her to bring back to their senses, and these are the ones mostly subject to a momentum effect - if it looks like some people are being persuaded, then they'll ALL start being persuaded.
However, those are also the voters that the Trump challengers will be competing for the most. Pence, Rubio, and Christie will be all over them. Only Tucker and DeSantis will dare going for the base, and even they will be facing an uphill battle, so it's not unreasonable to expect one of them to buckle and compete for the persuadable squishes.
You think that it’s all up to the potential candidates? The party has any role here?
The delegates are "the party". And until Trump's veneer of primary invincibility is pierced, they alone won't be enough to convince any candidate to break the dam. Again, without Cheney in the mix, it's just going to be whispers and staring while Trump plods along unopposed.
I'd vote for Dick first. No homo.
Care to elaborate?
against tRump or deathSantis yes, against anyone else- hell no
What about Tucker?
Tucker Carlson? are you kidding...my opnion of tuck is just as bad as tRump, so yes I would vote for her over tuck, its disturbing just to think that that jerk off could even run
Lol tell me how you REALLY feel!