David, came to check on you after your bet-induced ban :) I took at look at the numbers and Ryan did about 1.5 pts better than Biden in OH, Fetterman doing about 2.2 pts better that Biden in PA. I'm not sure there's clear evidence that the Fetterman approach is better so much as PA is bluer. But, here in Ohio, I'd say Tim Ryan came across as "normal politician," which is good to folks like me but pretty unremarkable to most. It wasn't enough to get independents all that excited. But that's my read of the vibes. In my purple suburb, I saw maybe 4 Vance signs and 2 Ryan ones when there were easily 10-20x as many signs in 2020. It was a big meh.

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Nov 11, 2022Liked by David Muccigrosso

"I was more confident about Tim Ryan than I should have been."


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Nov 10, 2022Liked by David Muccigrosso

So I would caution against making to many assumptions off of a few races. In PA, Fetterman beat OZ by 3.7% at last look, but Shapiro beat mastriano by 13%. So we’ve got almost 10% of voters who were Shapiro/OZ, what’s does that say about senate vs governors races? Is it specific to PA or the larger political environment?

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Nov 9, 2022Liked by David Muccigrosso

Comparing Fetterman vs. Oz with Ryan vs. Vance doesn't work. Fetterman has lived in PA for a long time, tried to clean up Braddock, eschewed the Lt. Governor's mansion and is brash. He looks like an every man sort of person.

Oz, on the other hand, has dual citizenship with Turkey and New Jersey (well sort of for New Jersey😉). He is a late-comer to PA and appears to have moved only to run for office. That speaks more to wanting personal power than to caring about his own constituents. While some people may love him, he sold crap to people knowing that it either didn't work or that there was no good basis for believing that it would work. The puppy killer thing was icing on the cake, for Fetterman.

Recently, newscasters have been talking about PA as being truly "purple" and that the reason for it is that voters choose by candidate, not party. I am not sure about that. It seems more likely that there are some deep red voters, some deep blue voters and enough independents who might go either way to paint the state purple. [In the Oz race, there may have been an anti-New Jersey angle that played out.]

Ryan seems to be the type of Democrat that Republicans shouldn't hate, except, we are in the Trump era. J.D. Vance is a full-throated Trump supporter. Both Ryan and Vance are native sons of Ohio, so no carpetbagging charges can be leveled against either one. Too many Republicans have listened for too long about the 2020 election being rigged. It has played over and over on various TV and radio broadcasts. I think this has played into that particular race, along with the demonization of Democrats as a whole. There are probably economic and societal reasons working in Ohio, too, about which I can't speak.

As for campaign style? We are in the age of tech. It allows us to be rude and stupid without immediate consequence. With the online availability of "information", being louder or more rude garners more attention. The squeaky wheel gets the grease is apropos today. Instead of checking to see if it is damaged, it gets greased.

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I, too, lived in NYS at that time and was skeptical. The thing is though, she stayed in NYS and made it her home. Oz has homes overseas and in NJ. Will he really stay in PA?

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