From The Comments: Predictions For 2024

I'm still holding out hope that this happens. But I'm not encouraged The Groups will stand by while moderate or "pro-life-with-exceptions" Dems run in red and purple states; not when maximalists delude themselves they can win if they just _screech_ loud enough. They'll defund and PNG the squishes, run a bunch of extremists, win their own blue strongholds, and luck into a pitiful handful of purple wins they'll spin as "promising".

At least, that's the short term.

I'm predicting something resembling 2004-2016ish on gay marriage. Democrats will have a Dodd bump for 2022, but the maximalists will still manage to fuck it up in every red and purple race that actually matters towards this new state abortion fight. Meanwhile, the GOP is *already* falling over themselves promising pro-life extremism, so in 2022-2024 we'll have a wave of harsh state bans and penalties (just like 2004), eventually petering out to a steady trickle in 2026.

Unlike gay marriage, however, public opinion on abortion is ideologically maturer, so the liberalizing backlash will materialize faster.

IMO, the critical question is whether The Groups get overruled by the electoral imperative to run on moderation. It's too late for moderation to dramatically impact the 2022 primaries, but since trigger bans will be in effect by 2023, and will impact red- and purple-state moderates just as strongly as blue-state maximalists, there'll be a surge in candidates for state offices in the 2024 primaries.

Thus, that question will get answered in those 2024 primaries... at least, in its first iteration. Maximalists will have the traditional primary turnout advantage, but that'll be attenuated by sheer numbers. When we're talking about the minority party in a solid red district or state, (A) extremists are rarer because they sort themselves to blue states, and (B) the party's rank-and-file will be more moderate because of the social imperative to fit in with their neighbors. So, even if the maximalists proportionally turn out more in the 2024 primaries, they may simply be outnumbered by moderates.

If the maximalists still win in 2024, that probably has larger political implications for the battle against authoritarianism, but more narrowly it just means the maximalists won't give up without a fight, so moderates should settle in for the long haul.

But -- and not to belabor this too much longer -- either way, the moderates Dems' main challenge post-2024 will be building their momentum through the next several cycles. Sure, the fundamentals nominally say the public wants a moderate compromise, even in red states. But the Dem maximalists will be coming for blood, and the "entropy of victory" will break down GOP unity for extreme abortion policies. Every inch of territory moderate Dems win in red states is an opening for a similarly moderate Republican to claw back his home turf, and also risks attracting the attention of national pro-choice maximalists hunting for scalps.