"All other things being equal, expect current trends to continue." - D. J. Muccigrosso.
The relevant trend here is that the GOP's only real political program is consolidating minoritarian rule in the country. In order to do that, McConnell needs the House or Senate. So he'll keep it up right until either Manchin threatens to abolish the filibuster (I'm assuming Manchin isn't unpredictable enough to just go ahead and do it without warning McConnell), or until he feels the GOP is taking just enough heat that a midterm House majority is starting to come into question.
Judging from the last few debt ceiling crises, I expect this to come right up to the last day. The fact that McConnell DOESN'T have anything he's fighting for actually makes him more likely to just ride it out to the near end - without anything to win, he's just screwing with Biden/Manchin as long as humanly possible.
I think you’re discounting some strands of the larger conservative movement. While McConnell may be concerned just with maintaining power, many republicans, especially republicans in the house have strongly held beliefs that many of their voters identify with. Some are more moderate or traditional republicans (circa bush 43), while some are batshit crazy borderline white nationalists (MTG and the like). But where does McConnell fit into this continuum? Or does he even care? He’ll be a more traditional conservative one minute and much more right wing the next. I think they this is one reason Democrats always seem to be playing defense on politics, but offense in policy. We are not often willing to appeal to the more rough edges of our political nature because we believe in our moral superiority over many conservatives. After all we are the party of rights and respect. We are the party who wants to uplift everyone. Just remember that everyone includes Mitch McConnell.
I think you’re discounting some strands of the larger conservative movement. While McConnell may be concerned just with maintaining power, many republicans, especially republicans in the house have strongly held beliefs that many of their voters identify with. Some are more moderate or traditional republicans (circa bush 43), while some are batshit crazy borderline white nationalists (MTG and the like). But where does McConnell fit into this continuum? Or does he even care? He’ll be a more traditional conservative one minute and much more right wing the next. I think they this is one reason Democrats always seem to be playing defense on politics, but offense in policy. We are not often willing to appeal to the more rough edges of our political nature because we believe in our moral superiority over many conservatives. After all we are the party of rights and respect. We are the party who wants to uplift everyone. Just remember that everyone includes Mitch McConnell.