Forget Russia, look at the US. Lots of similarities between the MAGAites now and the Bolsheviks between 1905 and 1917. There initial attempt to take over the government on January 6 failed. Now they are learning from their mistakes and planning for the next opportunity. They are definitely infiltrating the military and recruiting ex-military.
The goals are the same - to take power. The situation is different. MAGA doesn't need a secret organization. We have freedom of speech and MAGA is able to obtain political power legally. That is what they are attempting to do. They are willing to use the political system to subvert the legal system to obtain their goals. They also threaten violence if they don't get their way. This has been a big issue in prosecuting Trump for blatantly illegal behavior. And if Trump loses to Biden in 2024 or is convicted, violence is a possibility. If they do resort to violence it's possible that the police and National Guard will just step aside.
Something that no one thinks about is what if Trump had shown up at the Capitol on January 6? That was his plan. He was clearly angered when the Secret Service refused to follow his orders. What would have happened had he shown up at the Capitol and told the police to stand down? At the very least the police would have paused, unsure of what to do. This might have been the difference that let the mob into the Capital largely unhindered. Trump could have led them in. No one would have stopped him.
i dont know if youll agree with this characterization, but i feel like its close. The MAGA movement is almost most like the larger Socialist/Leftist movement in early 20th century Russia. A large political grouping that doesnt have no much in common as you might think, except opposition to the otherside and a desire to see change in a general direction (left in their version, right in ours). Peel off the neo-nazi, christian nationalist and proud boy-types, and thats your Communist part of Lenin and Stalin.
Willing to do whatever it took (Jan 6th, culture war BS, mass shootings) to change the nation (or prevent it from changing), this fringe openly wants to blow the system up. Trump can either become Stalin or one of the many leaders of high stature that Stalin murdered after Lenin died to become secure in his leadership.
There are SOME superficial resemblances. But those mostly originate from the practical necessities of organizing a modern mass movement and achieving regime change.
To the extent that MAGA is about regime change, sure, it’s totally a threat. But the threat comes from the movement itself, not a handful of superficial similarities.
MAGA is clearly a post-fascist movement. The parallels to look for aren’t with communism, but with fascism, which it FAR more clearly resembles.
Jan 6 is NOT a redux of the February or October Revolutions. Those were conducted by heavily armed (real guns and cannons, not pepper spray and tasers) and not just “organized” (like the pathetic Proud Boys or cosplaying Oath Keepers), but *regularized* Communist partisans. These were thousands of real troops who had been training for a whole freaking decade-plus in a meticulously planned tactical assault, not a couple dozen or hundred amateurs exchanging Facebook messages using an unruly mob as cover for "let's go hang this guy and then force Congress to... umm... I dunno, do what we want".
The real parallel for Jan 6 would be Hitler’s Beer Hall Putsch.
The Beer Hall Putsch is what came to mind at the time. Regardless, there are fascist-like groups intent on taking power in the US. Right now, probably the greatest danger is Trump actually winning the election.
I agree. Trump is the raptor who's figured out the door handles. He's got a comprehensive plan for basically twisting the entire executive branch into a tool of his corruption.
Every other GOP and/or MAGA leader, even RDS, they have limits. Even when they're trying to lock down minoritarian power, they THINK like normal politicians. Even when they're breaking norms strategically to win various partisan battles, it doesn't immediately occur to them to break every single norm all at once.
RDS, for instance, might appoint some DHS secretary who will do a lot of bad things to migrants - start up a national program of bussing them to blue cities, etc. But he'll observe the normal rule-making process, because he wants his new rules to *stick*. It slows him down, and even if he's breaking a norm, it's just one norm and it's a targeted assault. He'll carefully craft the policy to withstand, provoke, or pre-empt court challenges.
Trump, OTOH, would just appoint the secretary and declare the policy as soon as he's got a remotely coherent draft of it. And then he'll fight every court challenge as brazenly and sloppily as possible. And he'll have DOJ investigate the activists and lawyers and leaders who show up to oppose him. He'll slam the media and sic DOJ and the FCC on them for opposing his policy.
The former is corrosive to democracy, but can be opposed, and overcome by progress.
The latter is an existential battle to *preserve* democracy.
So yeah, Trump getting elected in 2024 would be an enormous catastrophe. Anyone else winning would represent a major reprieve for the cause of democracy, possibly even a turning point. Because if Trumpism can either be defeated outright at the ballot box, or at least redirected towards more conventional and less-sociopathic leaders, then its worst consequences will have been averted.
Good comparative analysis
Forget Russia, look at the US. Lots of similarities between the MAGAites now and the Bolsheviks between 1905 and 1917. There initial attempt to take over the government on January 6 failed. Now they are learning from their mistakes and planning for the next opportunity. They are definitely infiltrating the military and recruiting ex-military.
I don’t think that’s as much of a parallel as you think. The organizations/movements are VERY different.
The goals are the same - to take power. The situation is different. MAGA doesn't need a secret organization. We have freedom of speech and MAGA is able to obtain political power legally. That is what they are attempting to do. They are willing to use the political system to subvert the legal system to obtain their goals. They also threaten violence if they don't get their way. This has been a big issue in prosecuting Trump for blatantly illegal behavior. And if Trump loses to Biden in 2024 or is convicted, violence is a possibility. If they do resort to violence it's possible that the police and National Guard will just step aside.
Something that no one thinks about is what if Trump had shown up at the Capitol on January 6? That was his plan. He was clearly angered when the Secret Service refused to follow his orders. What would have happened had he shown up at the Capitol and told the police to stand down? At the very least the police would have paused, unsure of what to do. This might have been the difference that let the mob into the Capital largely unhindered. Trump could have led them in. No one would have stopped him.
i dont know if youll agree with this characterization, but i feel like its close. The MAGA movement is almost most like the larger Socialist/Leftist movement in early 20th century Russia. A large political grouping that doesnt have no much in common as you might think, except opposition to the otherside and a desire to see change in a general direction (left in their version, right in ours). Peel off the neo-nazi, christian nationalist and proud boy-types, and thats your Communist part of Lenin and Stalin.
Willing to do whatever it took (Jan 6th, culture war BS, mass shootings) to change the nation (or prevent it from changing), this fringe openly wants to blow the system up. Trump can either become Stalin or one of the many leaders of high stature that Stalin murdered after Lenin died to become secure in his leadership.
I strongly disagree with all of this.
There are SOME superficial resemblances. But those mostly originate from the practical necessities of organizing a modern mass movement and achieving regime change.
To the extent that MAGA is about regime change, sure, it’s totally a threat. But the threat comes from the movement itself, not a handful of superficial similarities.
MAGA is clearly a post-fascist movement. The parallels to look for aren’t with communism, but with fascism, which it FAR more clearly resembles.
Jan 6 is NOT a redux of the February or October Revolutions. Those were conducted by heavily armed (real guns and cannons, not pepper spray and tasers) and not just “organized” (like the pathetic Proud Boys or cosplaying Oath Keepers), but *regularized* Communist partisans. These were thousands of real troops who had been training for a whole freaking decade-plus in a meticulously planned tactical assault, not a couple dozen or hundred amateurs exchanging Facebook messages using an unruly mob as cover for "let's go hang this guy and then force Congress to... umm... I dunno, do what we want".
The real parallel for Jan 6 would be Hitler’s Beer Hall Putsch.
The Beer Hall Putsch is what came to mind at the time. Regardless, there are fascist-like groups intent on taking power in the US. Right now, probably the greatest danger is Trump actually winning the election.
I agree. Trump is the raptor who's figured out the door handles. He's got a comprehensive plan for basically twisting the entire executive branch into a tool of his corruption.
Every other GOP and/or MAGA leader, even RDS, they have limits. Even when they're trying to lock down minoritarian power, they THINK like normal politicians. Even when they're breaking norms strategically to win various partisan battles, it doesn't immediately occur to them to break every single norm all at once.
RDS, for instance, might appoint some DHS secretary who will do a lot of bad things to migrants - start up a national program of bussing them to blue cities, etc. But he'll observe the normal rule-making process, because he wants his new rules to *stick*. It slows him down, and even if he's breaking a norm, it's just one norm and it's a targeted assault. He'll carefully craft the policy to withstand, provoke, or pre-empt court challenges.
Trump, OTOH, would just appoint the secretary and declare the policy as soon as he's got a remotely coherent draft of it. And then he'll fight every court challenge as brazenly and sloppily as possible. And he'll have DOJ investigate the activists and lawyers and leaders who show up to oppose him. He'll slam the media and sic DOJ and the FCC on them for opposing his policy.
The former is corrosive to democracy, but can be opposed, and overcome by progress.
The latter is an existential battle to *preserve* democracy.
So yeah, Trump getting elected in 2024 would be an enormous catastrophe. Anyone else winning would represent a major reprieve for the cause of democracy, possibly even a turning point. Because if Trumpism can either be defeated outright at the ballot box, or at least redirected towards more conventional and less-sociopathic leaders, then its worst consequences will have been averted.