On Ukraine And Drones
This is in response to Claire Berlinski’s good article on Ukraine’s recent drone attack on Russia’s bomber fleet.
It’s definitely A Big Trucking Deal… but I think we also can’t forget the heavily clandestine nature of this operation.
The plot could’ve been foiled at any number of critical points. That’s no excuse for underestimating the potential of drone warfare, but it also significantly blunts the relevance of the geographic depth Ukraine achieved here. Surprise is ALWAYS a huge advantage in warfare!
Just like with the rise of air power during WWII, this new weapon will reemphasize the importance of existing technologies to master the new one. In WWII, we already knew how to mine and smelt metal, how to pump and refine oil, how to make bombs, how to mass produce planes, and how to shoot down planes. We already did many of those things for the battleships that were on their way out.
Similarly, we already interdict bombs at our borders, tightly control access to bomb making materials, and more. Weak countries do them poorly, strong countries usually do them better.
The real winners here will be those who make the most of these new capabilities and develop the next technologies to enable them. The Allies abandoned battleships earlier and created radar. Advances in bombsights, better torpedoes, sonar, and sub-hunting, and longer range bombers made our industrial superiority actually effective instead of just uselessly throwing men and materiel into a meat grinder.
Likewise, I see a MAJOR opportunity here for stealth drone carriers. You don’t need to sneak FPV drones several thousand miles if you can stealthily deliver dozens of them hundreds and thousands of miles behind enemy lines with something the size of a normal jet fighter. If anything, the requirements are EASIER than most fighters: (1) stealth is fine since you already need an internal drone bay, (2) tailless is fine since you don’t need big maneuverability, (3) unmanned is preferable, since you’re just sneaking in and dropping off drones, (4) you don’t need supercruise to drop the suckers off below ~150mph airspead, which (5) allows you to load it up with fuel for extra long range — it can even be a 1 way trip if you’re unmanned and cheap enough.
It’s tech like THAT which is going to win this next phase of human history.
This reminds me of something I learned about 35 years ago when I was a member of an emergency response team. The majority of hazardous materials that are transported in this country are in brown trucks (aka UPS).
This clandestine drone warfare is using the everyday to execute on amazing strategies. Think his clever they were to devise, plan, and execute this (and keep their mouths shut).
Our military ought to be quaking in their boots.
Also, fully autonomous driving is a huge threat. Load a Tesla with C4 and point it at a critical installation. It will go boom quite nicely (I heard that from a Government security person who is truly terrified by autonomous vehicles on the road)