I don't really see it ever happening unless the GOP basically goes the same direction the old Democrats did. But their inflow of nonwhites is not nearly strong enough yet to cause a party split/flip like what happened with the Dixiecrats, and is mostly contained to young anti-feminist men.
Any crackup would likely take another 3-4 decades of this trend expanding beyond its current scope. It wouldn't happen in a few short years.
More likely than not, Ranked Choice and various other electoral reforms complete their own long march before this process does. The party system would be fracturing by the time the GOP was ever remotely close to enacting a progressive agenda.
Also, you shouldn't let the Trumpist turn towards Metternichean illiberal welfare-state populism overshadow the fact that the GOP still contains a large contingent of non-Trumpist fiscal conservatives. It's not Dems who are shouting "pRoTeCt ThE sUbUrBs [from zoning reform]!", it's the GOP. And the GOP is never going to take on the educational or medical lobbies to enact supply-side progressivism, even out of Trumpist spite. Those lobbies have played both sides for so long that the GOP is just as dependent on their campaign contributions as the Democrats are. And supply-side progressivism isn't something the Trumpists would even accidentally stumble upon.
I just don't see that happening. Horseshoe Theory, like its brother Pendulum Theory and their retarded buck-toothed cousin Strauss-Howe, can only get you so far before you realize that they're highly circumstance-specific, not great tools for general analysis.
Barking Up The Wrong Tree
Barking Up The Wrong Tree
Barking Up The Wrong Tree
>> I'm almost starting to think that it'll be the GOP that implements economically progressive reforms down the road.
Erm... I mean... HOW though...
I don't really see it ever happening unless the GOP basically goes the same direction the old Democrats did. But their inflow of nonwhites is not nearly strong enough yet to cause a party split/flip like what happened with the Dixiecrats, and is mostly contained to young anti-feminist men.
Any crackup would likely take another 3-4 decades of this trend expanding beyond its current scope. It wouldn't happen in a few short years.
More likely than not, Ranked Choice and various other electoral reforms complete their own long march before this process does. The party system would be fracturing by the time the GOP was ever remotely close to enacting a progressive agenda.
Also, you shouldn't let the Trumpist turn towards Metternichean illiberal welfare-state populism overshadow the fact that the GOP still contains a large contingent of non-Trumpist fiscal conservatives. It's not Dems who are shouting "pRoTeCt ThE sUbUrBs [from zoning reform]!", it's the GOP. And the GOP is never going to take on the educational or medical lobbies to enact supply-side progressivism, even out of Trumpist spite. Those lobbies have played both sides for so long that the GOP is just as dependent on their campaign contributions as the Democrats are. And supply-side progressivism isn't something the Trumpists would even accidentally stumble upon.
I just don't see that happening. Horseshoe Theory, like its brother Pendulum Theory and their retarded buck-toothed cousin Strauss-Howe, can only get you so far before you realize that they're highly circumstance-specific, not great tools for general analysis.